Will Google’s new Gemini 3 model bump ChatGPT from the top spot? Some analysts and users think so. Here’s why they may be right.

In this article from Axios, the author (Megan Morrone) says that Google’s new Gemini 3 model is forcing a reckoning at OpenAI, as CEO Sam Altman told staffers to brace for “rough vibes” and “temporary economic headwinds” as the company works to catch up, per The Information.

She also notes that tech history is full of toppled incumbents – Betamax, AltaVista, MySpace, Friendster – but the AI race moves at a far faster clip. Today’s leader could be tomorrow’s laggard.

Ouch! Do we see OpenAI actually becoming the next BetaMax or MySpace? I don’t, but stranger things have happened.

Want more? Morrone states that analysts, users, and industry insiders say Gemini 3’s superior benchmarks, integration into Google’s ecosystem, and cost efficiencies are pressuring OpenAI, especially after GPT-5’s underwhelming August release.

On the flip side, while Gemini 3 is trained on a wider array of specialized topics. But when Gemini doesn’t know about a topic, one ex-Googler says she finds it much more willing than ChatGPT-5 to hallucinate an answer.

Chance Townsend of Mashable just did an in-depth comparison of Gemini 3 and ChatGPT. One thing he notes is: “According to the latest LMArena rankings, Gemini 3 is sitting at the very top of the board with a score of 1324, making it the current fan favorite across thousands of votes.”

Actually, that’s just the Vision list. Gemini 3 Pro is leading pretty much all the lists currently which pertain to it – Text, WebDev, Vision, Text-to-Image and Image Edit. And if you scroll down to the “Arena Overview” on that page, Gemini 3 Pro has a top rank in every category. Conversely, GPT 5.1 High only has a top ranking in three of eight categories.

Marrone also points out that:

• Google has nearly every structural advantage: vast revenue and cloud scale, plus the resources to distribute new AI features to billions of users overnight.
• The company is also one of Nvidia’s few real competitors in terms of creating its own chips.

Not to mention, they also rolled out their Generative UI capability last week, which looks really cool.

But she also notes that OpenAI retains strong brand loyalty from a user base of around 800 million weekly active users. The question is: how loyal will they be? Do customers stick with an AI chatbot unless it gives them an overwhelming reason to switch. We’ll see.

So, what do you think? Will Google’s new Gemini 3 model bump ChatGPT from the top spot? Please share any comments you might have or if you’d like to know more about a particular topic.

Image created from a clever GIF by Brendan Lynch at Axios that shows the Google “G” trying to eat the OpenAI logo.

Disclaimer: The views represented herein are exclusively the views of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views held by my employer, my partners or my clients. eDiscovery Today is made available solely for educational purposes to provide general information about general eDiscovery principles and not to provide specific legal advice applicable to any particular circumstance. eDiscovery Today should not be used as a substitute for competent legal advice from a lawyer you have retained and who has agreed to represent you.