Apparently, Sam Altman is confident that OpenAI knows how to build artificial general intelligence (AGI). Should he be that confident?

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman offered two eye-catching predictions about the near-future of artificial intelligence. In a post titled “Reflections” on his personal blog, Altman wrote, “We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it.” He added, “We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents ‘join the workforce’ and materially change the output of companies.”

Both statements are notable coming from Altman, who has served as the leader of OpenAI during the rise of mainstream generative AI products such as ChatGPT. AI agents are the latest marketing trend in AI, allowing AI models to take action on a user’s behalf. However, critics of the company and Altman immediately took aim at the statements on social media.

“We are now confident that we can spin bullshit at unprecedented levels, and get away with it,” wrote frequent OpenAI critic Gary Marcus in response to Altman’s post. “So we now aspire to aim beyond that, to hype in purest sense of that word. We love our products, but we are here for the glorious next rounds of funding. With infinite funding, we can control the universe.”

According to a longstanding investment rule at OpenAI, the rights over developed AGI technology are excluded from its IP investment contracts with companies such as Microsoft. In a recently revealed financial agreement between the two companies, the firms clarified that “AGI” will have been achieved at OpenAI when one of its AI models generates at least $100 billion in profits.

Because “intelligence” is really all about the money, right? 😉

While there are skeptics like Marcus, OpenAI’s o3 system scored 85% on the ARC-AGI benchmark, well above the previous AI best score of 55% and on par with the average human score (as I reported on last week’s Kitchen Sink). Of course, o3 is not publicly available yet and firm release dates haven’t been announced yet. Even though Sam Altman is confident that OpenAI knows how to build AGI, let’s see what happens when we all get our “grubby little mitts” on it. If anyone can find the holes, we all can – we’re the ultimate benchmark. 😁

So, what do you think? Do you think we’re close to achieving AGI? Please share any comments you might have or if you’d like to know more about a particular topic.

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